Sunday, August 17, 2008

Gecopolitico Update - June 2008


The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml

so a global financial crash is now believed to be imminent by one of the most elite banks in Europe?
So whats the only thing they can do to at least guarantee themselves some cash?

More rumors of a rising risk of Israel preparing to attack Iran

Some analysts say Israel is planning to take advantage of this window of opportunity while Bush is still in power, since many Jews suspect
Obama's support for Israel is only lip service. Labor Knesset Member Ofir Pines-Paz said of Senator Obama, "I respect him but suspect him."

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/252803/
...but as the blog also argues, an attack on Iran would cause "...a major global recession, wars throughout the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, etc.) and a major increase in geopolitical instability."

..so do they have the cahones to bring Armageddon raining down upon us all? ...or is that what they've been planning all along?

Financial Times has a very nice graphical, animated presentation of the physical (not the trading) market for oil. It is quite informative.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74bf31bc-992a-11dc-bb45-0000779fd2ac.html

While you are evaluating the graphics, take a close look at the U.S. position on the oil chessboard. See what our percentage of world demand is, and how much we produce, and how that is changing over time. Take a look at China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Then take a look at Iraq.

This is the chessboard. Some believe Israel to just be the red herring, designed to deflect attention from the actual issue - a "not-oil" reason to do some very dirty oil business.
US's oil dependence is not a given. It's a choice, and it's becoming a very expensive choice. We are going to pay for this next set of mis-steps for a long, long time.

Leading House and Senatorial donkeys and elephants, with the support of Aipac, have raised a bill (on the way to a fastrack passing) calling on a Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as two more large aircraft carriers arrive to the area. You dont send that much hardware to one place for show.
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9377

The blocking of the Strait, where 60% of the world's oil passes through, have some analysts seeing oil past 350$! And thats only if Iran's supply is halted (they have 1/5th of the worlds oil reserves, and supply 5% of it currently). This is something Iran has threatened to do in the past if attacked. Why would US risk imposing such a move itself? Does it see an attack on Iran as too risky just now, but are still preparing for a timed crash of the world economy? Or is it just a bluff meant to placate Israel's fears and delay the inevitable attack?

Could the religious fundawacks be having have way too much say in the direction things are heading? Oil is not the only issue at hand for many, but fulfillment of prophecy...
http://www.jewsonfirst.org/06b/cufi.html

Either way, it seems there are different and opposing powers at work, and not only between the nations with vested interests, but within the US power structure itself. We can only guess what road things will take in the near future, but I'm not seeing too much positive no matter how hard i'm looking for it.

So if things continue to head the way they are heading, what can we do about it?

One investors steps to protecting himself:

"1. sold all my mutual funds in Jan 2007
2. invested in euro etfs and gld etfs. (I've recently sold the Euro etf)
2. pulled cash and stockepiled it along with some silver/gold in a safe
3. open two accounts at small credit unions and place several months cash for emergencies
4. I have no debt except for the home which is at 50% LTV.

so far my investments are up more so than if I had listened to a broker.
I watch the market constantly for signs of problems and can react rapidly to it.
I read many different blogs including this one for ideas, trends, thoughts, etc."

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