Sunday, September 21, 2008

...the next banks/brokers in danger of collapse

This past week we saw the shit hit the fan. Lehman brothers went bust and AIG, the world's largest insurer had to be saved by the government; but this is still the tip of the iceberg. Q3 numbers should be out at the beginning of October, but banks are already finding it difficult to sugarcoat their situations.

Who's next? How many more banks are in danger of going under?

This, in a large part depends on their exposure to difficult to trade, value and sell junk -- illiquid assets -- dubbed "Level 3"

Check out Citi, and Fannie & Freddie. A few months ago Bear Sterns was just under Lehman Brothers in terms of level 3 assets as a percent of equity...

If we take the level 3 assets to equity ratio, or the level 3 assets to total assets ratio, we can see who is really in danger...How much longer can the rest hold out?

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Levelthree1

Levelthree2

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