An article in the NY Times refers to an economic collapse of a nation just sticking its head into the club of Europe. A nation that just recovered from a bout with communism, still reeling from its trip to the West, spinning so fast, its about to topple right over in its new dancing shoes.
The contrast of change we have witnessed in the past ten years might not be as stark as what the author experienced in 20, but even that is nothing short of amazing. Each day I walk the streets, it hits me again and again the potential this city has.
The author does seem to take a shallow surface view of the situation... and for him, like many others, Budapest is Hungary, and infrastructure is the yardstick for progress. The infrastick is far outpacing both the culturestick or the ecostick, and the sensei Budastick burns much greener than the swaggy videkstick. But this country is being led by cosmopolitan Budapesters on one hand and self-righteous nationalists who feel they deserve much better without having to work for it, on the other. The crowds in between are a victim of their own vices...
Most Hungarians want it all with no sacrifice (praise goes for the exceptions). Ruthless every-man-for-himself living, fueled by the refusal to give in to hopelessness, pervades the self-destructive mentality and prolongs the dire economic situation. Give me socialist welfare but I wont pay my taxes; good service, but don't expect a smile from me; capitalist prosperity with a socialist safety net; honest business partners so we can screw others together before we screw each other. They are schico's caught in a limbo of corrupt balkan cronyism, german rigidity, mediterranean 'I dont give a fuck' business attitude, and Swedish socialist expectations.
Despite self-defeating mentality of the many, there is hope fueling a few. There is a vibe magnetic and infecting about the country, and especially Budapest. I had a conversation just yesterday with a Turkish friend who seems to have just realized after two years this will be his home. His family, friends and career are all waiting for him in Istanbul, but still he chooses Budapest. The author's description of the crowds walking the streets with "furtive energy, muffled pride" sums it up well. Scores of youth complain and talk about moving West, but when an opportunity arises, they stick it through and stick around. Despite the lingering cloud of pessimism formed the day children look into their parents eyes and crystallized the day they first learn their history, hope seems to shine through with the pulse of a city unlike any other in Europe. A love and hate relationship of the worst kind.
Hungary is infected by its own culture, at awe with its own potential, and angry at the world at its own failure to change. Hopefully, they will emerge from this crisis with renewed determination to put history on their side once and for all, but for that, constructive self-criticism needs to be fueled with determination and optimism, as opposed to resentment and greed.
ok, some specifics:
- Companies were firing people left & right in the first 3 months of the yr. Officially, unemployment stagnated at 7.8%, since March, which could be viewed as even positive if exports wouldnt have fallen by 30% since January and imports by even more. The central statistics office said thats probably the largest monthly fall since the collapse of Communism.
- Loan default rates will rise to nearly 25%! Thats Europe's highest rate and the biggest threat to the economy. The weaker the forint gets, the greater the threat.
- BP and Citibank are opening up 1000+ people operations in Q1,Q2 of this year. As industrial production dries up, the only source of new jobs will be back office deskwork at multinationals. That will only serve to further 'greenify' the budastick at the expense of the swiggity.
- some positive news - palacsinta, paprikas krumpli, rakott krumpli and fozeleks of all sorts are back in style! Cheap, filling recession food we all love when on a tight budget!
So the effects of the slowdown have barely begun to take effect... If anyone has any money to spare, look for investing in an apartment here towards the end of the year when desperation for cash really kicks in!
On the other hand, the city is full of smiling bikies enjoying cheap frocs at Godor and saving up for some of the kick-ass festivals about to rock our summer! :D
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